December 2025

Minnesota’s 2026 gubernatorial race—already one of the nation’s most-watched contests—became even more chaotic this week after MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell filed paperwork on Dec. 3, 2025, to form a campaign committee for a possible run for governor. Lindell, a fierce Trump ally and one of the most polarizing figures in American politics, now appears poised to test whether MAGA populism can win statewide in a blue-leaning battleground.

Lindell Files, Says He’s “98% Sure” He’ll Run

Lindell, 64, filed his “Mike Lindell for Governor” committee with Minnesota’s Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board, enabling him to begin fundraising. He told the Star Tribune and MPR he is “98% sure” he will enter the Republican primary, with a full announcement expected around December 11, shortly before he speaks at the state GOP Central Committee meeting on December 13.

His aide characterized the filing as “precautionary”—but insiders say Lindell has been privately polling matchups against Gov. Tim Walz for months and believes he’s the strongest GOP option.

Democrats Pounce Immediately

Democrats wasted zero time framing Lindell as unelectable:

DFL Chair Richard Carlbom:
“Conspiratorial, extremist, and weird.”

Democratic Governors Association:
“A sleazy businessman making the most chaotic Republican primary in the country even more dangerous.”

On X, reactions ran the gamut:

MAGA base: “American Hero Mike Lindell will crush Communist Tim Walz!”

Moderates & left-leaning voters: “Mike Lindell bwhahahahaha… Governor of MN? Stop it, fascist.”

Lindell also carries immense baggage:
– Banned from Twitter in 2021
– Lost a $5 million defamation arbitration in 2023
– Facing dozens of lawsuits over unpaid legal fees
– Still promoting disproven 2020 election conspiracies

Yet, among Trump-aligned GOP activists, his name recognition—and loyalty to Trump—is unmatched.

Minnesota 2026 Governor’s Race: The Landscape

Minnesota is typically Democratic at the statewide level, but Trump narrowly carried the state in 2024 by roughly 1.5%, making it a genuine battleground.

Gov. Tim Walz is seeking a rare third term (Minnesota has no term limits, but no governor has won a third consecutive term since 1962). His approval rating sits at ~52%, buoyed by his national profile after being vetted for vice president in 2024.

Cook Political Report Rating: Likely Democratic
Election Date: November 3, 2026
Primary Date: August 11, 2026

Democratic Field

Tim Walz – Incumbent governor, running for a third term

Strong backing from labor unions

Signature issues: education, paid leave expansion

No serious primary challengers expected

Republican Field (Now 13+ Candidates)

Lisa Demuth – House Speaker

Scott Jensen – 2022 nominee

Kristin Robbins – State Rep.

Kendall Qualls – 2022 candidate

Jim Nash – State Rep.

Zach Duckworth – State Sen.

Chris Madel – Attorney

Patrick Knight – Food executive

Mike Lindell – MyPillow CEO, newly filed

The field is crowded, fragmented, and deeply divided. Lindell could galvanize rural MAGA voters but alienate moderates in suburban Hennepin and Ramsey Counties.

Early Polling (SurveyUSA, Sept. 2025)

– Walz 46% vs. Jensen 41%
– Walz 47% vs. Robbins 40%

No polling yet includes Lindell, but political insiders believe his entry would:
✔ Boost GOP turnout in rural counties
✘ Devastate GOP support in Twin Cities suburbs
✘ Energize Democratic organizing statewide

National Election Climate Heading Into 2026

The broader political environment matters—and right now, it favors Democrats.

2025 “Blue Wave” Midterms

Democrats won key races, widely seen as a rebuke of Trump’s early second-term agenda:

Virginia: Abigail Spanberger elected governor

New Jersey: Mikie Sherrill holds governorship

New York City: Zohran Mamdani defeats Andrew Cuomo for mayor

California: Prop 50 passes, enabling Dem-friendly redistricting

Could flip 5 House seats in 2026

Massive turnout—55% in several states—was driven by:

Economic pain from Trump’s tariffs

Federal layoffs

The government shutdown

ICE raids and deportation sweeps

House & Senate Outlook

GOP House majority is razor-thin: 219–213, with 3 vacancies

Democrats eye flips in: NC, OH, WI, MN

Senate: GOP defends tough seats in ME, NC, OH

2026 Governors to Watch

GA (open, R Kemp term-limited)

KS (D Laura Kelly term-limited)

WI (Evers running again)

Cook identifies 4 toss-ups—Minnesota could join that group if the GOP coalesces behind someone credible.

Bottom Line: Lindell Is a Wildcard

Mike Lindell’s near-certain entrance turns Minnesota’s GOP primary into a MAGA loyalty contest at a time when the broader electorate is shifting left in reaction to Trump’s second-term policies.